Right now all eyes are on how the Upper House vote on postal privatization will go.
If it passes: Prime Minister Koizumi gets the outcome he wanted.
If it fails: the Lower House gets dissolved.
If it fails, political chaos is virtually guaranteed.
The LDP could split, and the DPJ might become the ruling party.
But whether the DPJ — which has only ever been in opposition — would actually be supported as the governing party is unclear to me.
They’ve been able to criticize because the LDP was in power; once they’re in charge themselves, they’ll actually have to deliver on their manifesto.
The LDP’s manifesto is, broadly speaking, realistic.
The DPJ’s manifesto is idealistic.
If the DPJ comes to power and manages to actually deliver on their idealistic platform, their support would grow. But if they can’t, the reaction would be “so they’re all talk” — and their support would collapse.
Honestly, I think that’s the more likely outcome.
That would create even deeper political chaos, with no telling what might happen next.
The Upper House vote on postal privatization is really something to watch closely.